Avoiding Bad Weather

Woody Goose, aground, keel ripped off, on New Zealand shore, 1998


Can Good Weather Forecasting Avoid This?


Re: Sue Corenman comments about the loss of boats in a storm that hit the northbound fleet from New Zealand this year.

Judy noticed the letters in Latitude. The gist of the story is that, as is usual at this time of year, lots of boats were about, maybe 30-40 boats sailing at the time, and they were hit by a severe low which developed to the north of New Zealand, right on their course. There was no loss of life, but some boats anchored in Minerva Reef were lost. Corenman deplored the loss of the boats and pointed out that with the weather information available now it was completly avoidable. She cited forecasters such as New Zealand's Bob McDavitt and the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's) GFS (Global Forecast System) computer models which are available to mariners via HF Radio grib files. Sue and Jim Corenman are directors of Sailmail Association which, through the "Saildocs" service, provide free grib files with the NOAA information. Corenman's point is that boats should not set out on a passage when there are definate indications of bad weather ahead. Good point, actually.

As Sue Corenman says, the forecasting now is amazingly thorough and Sailmail makes it possible for many yachts to have onboard the best and latest weather info available, no matter where they are in the world. We have come to count on grib file forecasts and place a lot of weight on information contained in them, and would be lost without them, although they don't always predict local weather conditions which we often find are contrary to the predictions for the wider area.

But Sue is a bit rough on the slower boats which might leave for a 12 day passage on a good forecast and get caught out in the middle of it with a low cell coming in a few days, and she doesn't touch on the "peer pressure" issue, where a rally, race, or a cruise has a set "start date" and they tend to want to leave on schedule, even in the face of a questionable forecast. This, I think, is a bigger issue, as the herding instinct tends to make people ignore what their own good sense might be telling them about an upcoming weather window. Considering the possibility that forecasters are being somewhat on the "safe" side, (I didn't say alarmist) and probably predict more low cells than actually show up, means that there is often a chance of scary weather included in the long range forecast.

However, she is absolutely spot-on that boats should be able to withstand 12 ft seas and 50 knots of wind. Most Kiwi's will tell you that on any passage to or from New Zealand, count on getting smacked at least once. Further, getting caught in Minerva Reef is bad seamanship. You only need a day or two of warning to be able to get out of an anchorage and get to sea when a storm is coming in a place of dubious protection.

Notice that Corenmans are in Friday Harbor? Wonderful place, we miss it dearly.

Fred Roswold, SV WINGS